The question everyone is asking. Now you can model it.
A naval blockade of Iranian ports was declared effective April 13. The IRGC declared any US military approach to Hormuz a ceasefire violation. The ceasefire holds Day 6 on its primary axis, nine days from the April 22 expiration. The model is watching the collision between these two postures.
For the first time, the same type of scenario modeling used by military strategists is available to everyone. Adjust the variables and run thousands of simulations to discover if we are headed toward global war or if there is still a path to peace.
⚠ Educational only · Not affiliated with any government · Probabilistic estimates, not predictions
// GeoWatcher v6 · Operation Epic Fury Active · 36-Month Horizon
Every slider and toggle shifts the probability of global conflict. Hover any variable to learn what it means. Run thousands of parallel timelines and see where the world is headed.
Select conditions below. Watch the model reconfigure. Then run it.
Every option below adjusts from today's published baseline. Pick one condition per layer. Stack them with AND to combine effects or OR to replace the previous condition. Hit Answer and watch the sliders move in real time. Then hit Run Scenario to see the probability.
⚠ You are not changing the published baseline. This is your personal scenario run.
Build your scenario. Combine up to 5 conditions across military, diplomatic, economic, major power, and black swan dimensions
// DAILY BASELINE LOG
The Daily Baseline is a standardized simulation run reflecting the originator's best assessment of current real-world conditions. It is updated every morning based on open-source intelligence and published openly. Every change is logged here with the date, resulting probability, and primary variables that moved. This log exists for full transparency and is part of the platform's public provenance record.
// Methodology
GeoWatcher uses a Monte Carlo simulation methodology to model how geopolitical crises evolve under different conditions. Each simulation generates a possible future timeline by introducing controlled probabilistic variation across geopolitical variables and actor behavior. Thousands of independent runs are executed for every scenario to produce a probability distribution of outcomes rather than a single deterministic forecast.
Variables are deeply interconnected. No factor operates in isolation. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz raises oil prices, which weakens political will in energy-importing nations, which alters alliance cohesion, which changes escalation decisions elsewhere in the system.
The engine tracks 60+ correlated variables across 10+ global actors over a fixed 36-month horizon. It incorporates one-time shock events including leadership assassinations, satellite denial, deepfake cascades, and biological incidents that abruptly change the escalation landscape.
Although the model uses Monte Carlo simulation, the engine is designed to produce deterministic and reproducible results. Each scenario configuration generates a cryptographic seed that initializes a pseudo-random number generator. Identical configurations always produce identical outputs. Shared scenarios reproduce the same results everywhere.
Each run generates a unique timeline identifier derived from a cryptographic hash of the scenario payload. These identifiers allow scenarios to be referenced, shared, and reproduced exactly, and enable optional public verification through blockchain anchoring in a future build.
Model note: Diplomacy carries the strongest de-escalation weight because historically it is the most consistently validated off-ramp for interstate escalation. Its absence is treated as a major escalation risk multiplier. All probabilities represent the likelihood of an outcome within the next 36 months under the selected conditions.
Independence: The GeoWatcher WW3 Simulator is an independent platform with no affiliation with any government, military organization, intelligence agency, or institutional analytical body. The simulation methodology is an original implementation of publicly documented mathematical techniques applied to geopolitical scenario modeling. Variable weights are derived from publicly available academic research, historical conflict data, and open-source intelligence. No classified data is used or implied.
Disclaimer: Educational tool only. No classified data. Variable weights derived from publicly available research. Results are probabilistic estimates, not predictions.
// BETA v1: What's Here. What's Coming.
This is a public beta. Every feature you see is live and functional. Every feature listed below is engineered, specified, and scheduled for the enterprise build. Nothing is vaporware.