Days Tracked

Series Start

Current

Lowest

Highest

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Baseline History (JavaScript required for interactive features)

Date	Day	WW3 Risk	Delta	Driver
2026-04-23	54	31.1%	+6.5	Iran answered Trump's ceasefire extension with three ship seizures at Hormuz.
2026-04-22	53	24.6%	-9.8	Largest single-session decline in the simulation series at 9.8 points.
2026-04-21	52	34.4%	-3.9	Will contracting shifted the model from the loss pathway toward withdrawal.
2026-04-20	51	38.3%	+22.6	USS Spruance disabled an Iranian vessel at gunpoint. Three tech wildcards activated.
2026-04-19	50	15.7%	-3.5	Series low. IRGC fired on a tanker at Hormuz. Lebanon truce. Macron-Starmer drew 40 nations.
2026-04-15	46	19.2%	-1.2	Blockade Day 3 without a shot fired. Three deadlines converge in 14 days.
2026-04-14	45	20.4%	-2.1	Data point only.
2026-04-13	44	22.5%	-6.2	Naval blockade declared effective. IRGC named US approach a ceasefire violation.
2026-04-12	43	28.7%	+3.0	Islamabad talks collapsed after 21 hours. Nuclear commitment was the sticking point.
2026-04-11	42	25.7%	-5.7	Islamabad Day 1 convened. Both delegations in proximity format for the first time since 1979.
2026-04-10	41	31.4%	-3.7	First simultaneous proxy stand-down of the war.
2026-04-09	40	35.1%	-2.2	Ceasefire holds. Islamabad talks begin today. Hormuz closed. 800 vessels trapped.
2026-04-08	39	37.3%	+8.5	Ceasefire active. Airstrikes paused. Oil down 14%. The number went up.
2026-04-05	37	28.8%	0.0	The April 6 deadline is tonight. The model is holding.
2026-04-04	36	28.8%	+8.4	Loss leads Peace for the first time.
2026-04-03	35	20.4%	--	Resuming after 2-day engine refit.
2026-03-31	32	28.5%	-3.0	Iran's drones are down 95%. China became an active mediator.
2026-03-30	31	31.5%	+2.8	Brent hit $116. Spain blocked US military planes.
2026-03-28	29	30.9%	-1.0	Brent hit $112. Trump threatened to abandon NATO.
2026-03-27	28	31.9%	+2.8	Israel struck two nuclear facilities. Russia confirmed supplying intelligence.
2026-03-26	27	29.1%	-9.1	Iran defense capability collapsed. Economic strain hit critical levels.
2026-03-25	26	38.2%	-8.1	One variable moved the math that much: Diplomacy ON.

Daily Baseline History