The GeoWatcher WW3 Risk Tracker tracks the daily probability of conflict escalation to World War 3 using a Monte Carlo simulation model. It is not a news site. It is not a doomsday clock. It is a simulation engine with a daily research-informed baseline and a published provenance record.
Every day since March 25, 2026, the model has produced a verified baseline probability. Each baseline is the output of 10,000 Monte Carlo iterations calibrated against that day's confirmed intelligence from open-access sources. The full methodology, all source citations, and the complete historical record are publicly available.
The Peace Policy is the operating entity. GeoWatcher is the public-facing brand. The WW3 Risk Tracker is the product: a daily simulation engine that produces the probability number.
Peace is the ONLY Victory.
The platform exists to make geopolitical risk legible to anyone, not just analysts and governments. The daily probability number is designed to be understood by a 13-year-old who watches the news. The methodology is designed to be scrutinized by a PhD who studies conflict modeling. Both audiences matter.
GeoWatcher is independent. It is not affiliated with any government, intelligence agency, or military organization. The model is informed by publicly available data only. No classified sources. No paywalled inputs.
Each daily baseline follows a documented seven-step protocol: research collection, variable calibration, simulation run (10,000 iterations), provenance recording, publication, and cross-platform distribution. The full process is documented in the methodology page.
The simulation engine uses nine continuous variables and fourteen binary event toggles to model the probability space. Each day, the operator calibrates these inputs against verified open-source intelligence before running the simulation. The output is not an opinion. It is a mathematical result of the inputs.