Frequently Asked Questions

The WW3 Risk percentage is the output of a Monte Carlo simulation that runs 10,000 iterations every day. It represents the share of those simulated futures in which the current Iran-US conflict escalated to World War 3 within 36 months. It is a mathematical result of calibrated inputs, not an opinion or prediction.

No, WW3 has not started. The current conflict is Operation Epic Fury, a US-led military operation against Iran that began in March 2026. It is a serious regional conflict with global implications, but it has not escalated to great-power war. The GeoWatcher model tracks the probability that it could.

That is the question the model tries to answer every day. The current WW3 Risk percentage represents the model's best estimate based on today's inputs. Whether we are headed to WW3 depends on decisions that have not been made yet, which is why the number changes daily as new information arrives.

The odds of WW3 starting change every day based on real-world events. GeoWatcher's Monte Carlo model produces a daily estimate of those odds. You can see the current number on the live tracker and the full history on the baseline history page.

The probability of WW3 starting is what the GeoWatcher model calculates every day. The current probability is displayed on the live tracker at geowatcher.live. It is derived from 10,000 Monte Carlo simulation iterations calibrated against that day's verified intelligence.

The percentage is calculated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Nine variables are calibrated daily based on open-source intelligence. The model runs 10,000 randomized iterations. The WW3 Risk percentage is the share of those iterations that produced the Loss (WWIII) outcome. The full methodology is published here.

Operation Epic Fury is the name of the US-led military operation against Iran that began in March 2026. It includes airstrikes, a naval blockade of Iranian ports, and coalition operations. GeoWatcher has tracked the daily probability of this conflict escalating to World War 3 since Day 26 of the operation.

A Monte Carlo simulation is a mathematical technique that runs thousands of randomized scenarios to estimate probabilities. Instead of predicting one future, it simulates many possible futures and counts how often each outcome occurs. GeoWatcher runs 10,000 iterations per daily baseline.

The Most Likely Scenario is the outcome that appeared most frequently across all 10,000 simulation iterations. If US Withdrawal appeared in 63% of iterations, that becomes the most likely scenario even if WW3 Risk is 31%. The two numbers measure different things.

No. A high percentage means the model's inputs are in a configuration where more simulated futures produce escalation. It does not mean WW3 is imminent. The model estimates probabilities, not timelines. A 35% probability means 65% of simulated futures did not escalate.

The confidence band is the plus/minus figure shown below the WW3 Risk percentage. It represents the inter-quartile range across 10,000 iterations. A narrow band means the model is confident in its output. A wide band means the inputs are near a threshold where small changes produce different results.

Yes. The live tracker includes a scenario builder where you can adjust all nine variables and fourteen toggles yourself and run your own simulation. Your scenario run does not change the published baseline. It lets you explore what-if questions on your own.

The baseline is updated every day. Each update follows a seven-step protocol: research collection, variable calibration, simulation run, provenance recording, publication, PDF publishing, and cross-platform distribution. The full daily analysis is published on Telegram and X.

GeoWatcher is built and operated by The Peace Policy. It is an independent platform not affiliated with any government, intelligence agency, or military organization. The simulation engine was developed by ParVector Institute.

The Peace Policy is the organization that operates GeoWatcher. Its mission is summarized in one line: Peace is the ONLY Victory. The platform exists to make geopolitical risk legible to anyone, not just analysts and governments.

GeoWatcher is the brand name for the WW3 Risk Tracker platform. It was previously known as the WW3 Simulator before being renamed in April 2026. GeoWatcher is operated by The Peace Policy.

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation set once per year by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. GeoWatcher is a quantitative Monte Carlo simulation updated every day with calibrated inputs. The Doomsday Clock measures broad existential risk sentiment. GeoWatcher measures the specific probability of the current conflict escalating to World War 3.

No. GeoWatcher is completely independent. It is not affiliated with, funded by, or connected to any government, military, or intelligence agency. All inputs come from publicly available, open-access sources.

A WW3 risk index or WW3 risk indicator is a tool that estimates the current probability of World War 3. GeoWatcher's WW3 Risk Tracker is one such tool. It produces a daily probability using a Monte Carlo simulation model with nine calibrated variables and fourteen event toggles.

The full daily analysis is published on the GeoWatcher Telegram channel at t.me/geowatcher. Summary posts are published on X at @geowatcherlive and on Threads at @geowatcherlive. Research PDFs with full source citations are linked from the baseline history page.